Friday, September 12, 2008

The sky is not falling

OK, so McCain has taken the lead in a few polls in the last day or two.

It's just the edge of his post-convention bounce, which was intensified by the interest over Sarah Palin.

Two things will soon happen:

1. Palin's star will fade.
2. Debates.

The first Obama/McCain debate is September 26.

Give it a week after that. If McCain is ahead on October 3, there's trouble.

I predict he will not be. We're just riding a post-convention bounce. It will end. By November, everyone will be bored with Palin and sick of mudslinging, which Obama's been better about avoiding. They'll vote with their pocketbooks. They'll vote Obama for the same reason they voted Clinton in '92.

(I am a little scared of the Bradley effect, however.)


Chris Snethen said...

I'm with you, but I've certainly had my moments in the last week. The debates will ultimately swing this thing for Obama. Since the convention, McCain has morphed into Giuliani and that should be enough to scare the pants off the middle. McCain won the nomination in large part because he was the sanest of all of them. I wonder how much of his primary support he'll be able to hold on to.

Greg said...

At this point, I'm *really* hoping the young voters who turned out in such record numbers defy the historical precedent and turn out again in November. Young voters turn out for primaries in much greater numbers than for general elections. If we can find a way to buck that trend and get those 18-30 year old voters to show up on Nov. 2, we have a chance. If we don't ...